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Paper Abstract: Economist's ideas on population, demographics, food supply, starvation, critical views, economic growth. Paper Introduction: Population studies have been related to the development and evolution of economies by different theorists who show the inter-relationship between the two dimensions, with each influencing the other. These issues were raised by Malthus in developing his conception of population growth and have been extended by others into a variety of ancillary issues from energy use and abuse to pollution questions. In the modern age, these issues have become part of the debate over development and underdevelopment and have been applied particularly to explaining or correcting the ills of the developed world while trying to guide the developing world into more productive and balanced patterns. The theory of Thomas Robert Malthus made a major contribution to the study of population. The reaction to Malthus at the time varied widely and continues to do so to this day. Text of the Paper: The entire text of the paper is shown below. However, the text is somewhat scrambled. We want to give you as much information as we possibly can about our papers and essays, but we cannot give them away for free. In the text below you will find that while disordered, many of the phrases are essentially intact. From this text you will be able to get a solid sense of the writing style, the concepts addressed, and the sources used in the research paper. The way to achieve this was through education:"Educating the mass would afford everyone the possibility of improving hissituation, and this was, in Malthus's view, a strong counter force to theprinciple of population."[iv] Underlying Malthus' seemingly gloomy predictions about populationgrowth and starvation was a certain optimism that human beings could takehold of their own destiny, change their behavior as needed, and achievesomething better. Thomas R. It wouldseem that there is a balance to be reached, a balance that Malthus did notenvision and which negates much of his argument. Some of his ideas have been taken over byother theorists and have been used as a justification for all manner ofsocial programs and attitudes, some of which he might have agreed with andsome of which he might not. An Essay on Population: Volume One. The arguments continue. Ames, IA: Iowa State University Press, 1985.Gilland, Bernard. Darwin and Mendel had not yet provided the basic elements for ascience of genetics. Again, though, there remains adispute over whether the evidence shows that the world will or will not beable to produce at a sufficient rate to satisfy the demand. Some socialscientists believe that Malthus was wrong in his analysis of population,while others believe that human capabilities have simply overcome the sortsof problems Malthus foresaw. The present UN projections hold that the world population willstabilize at 1 billion and that this number can be sustained. Culbertson, "'Economic Growth,' Population, and theEnvironment," Population and Environment (Winter 1989): 83-84.Ibid., 91.Allen Chase, The Legacy of Malthus: The Social Costs of the NewScientific Racism (New York: Alfred A. DeGregori suggests justthis when noting that the idea of progress has prevailed in Westerncultures for two centuries, leading to scientific and technologicaladvances that have changed the face of the world: "I argue that the impactof technology on human life is a primary and continuing cause of humanbetterment."[v] Technology holds out part of the answer to Malthus' fearsof unchecked population, though other measures as well might be necessaryto assure a solution to such problems: "If resources are fixed and finiteand population is growing out of control, then privilege, inequality, andsome drastic controls are necessary if anyone is to survive."[vi] Malthus' theory has been much argued since it was first propounded,just as DeGregori's view of technology has been much debated. Dutton, 1933.Percival, Ray. Among the moral restraintshe cited were delayed marriage and moral restraint that would preventunwanted births. Bernard Gilland analyzes the relationships among population,economic development, and energy demand: Projections of world energy demand for 2 and 2 2 have been developed on the basis of plausible assumptions regarding population growth, economic growth, and a postulated relation between elasticity of energy demand and growth of gross domestic product per capita by world region.[xvii]Similar projections can and have been made for other dimensions of humanconsumption, including food, and then compared with the probable rates offood creation, energy creation, and so on. Layton, "Introduction," in T.R. The term economic growth, John M. The populationof the earth recently passed the five billion mark and seems to becontinuing to grow unabated: Yet, in more-developed countries, population growth is slight and, in some instances, a decline in numbers is occurring. The Legacy of Malthus: The Social Costs of the New Scientific Racism. In such asociety, Malthus said, the population would rapidly increase to where thepeople would be reduced to starvation: "The doctrine that will for ever beassociated with his name declares that there is a universal tendency forpopulation to outrun the means of subsistence."[ii] The social andscientific intent of Malthus is evident in the opening lines when heexplains the subject he is about to explain: 1. To examine the probability of the total or partial removal of these causes in the future.[iii] In keeping with these goals, Malthusian theory has held an importantplace in the development of modern demography. The science of population and its relationship to economics producesat best a range of possible outcomes. Caldwell, "The Failure of Theories of Social andEconomic Change to Explain Demographic Change: Puzzles ofModernization or Westernization," Research in PopulationEconomics (1982): 327.Bernard Gilland, "Population, Economic Growth, and EnergyDemand, 1985-2 2 ," Population and Development Review (June1988): 244.----------------------- 13 As a result, anythingthat improves the condition of the masses enough to encourage populationgrowth would lead to starvation. This allows us to project energy demandbased on present rates of population growth and to make forecasts of thelikelihood of fulfilling this need and of the means that will be undertakento do so. Inherent in the term is the idea of technologicalchange and progress. Population. Culbertson of theUniversity of Wisconsin says, is one that implies that the pattern ofeconomic change in the United States is a matter programmed by nature andthat it will automatically elevate all nations and take care of allproblems of population and the environment. Malthus did not envisage the possibility to greatlyincrease the human being's ability to provide the world with more food, andhe would not believe in the possibility of a world with sufficientresources to support the world's children. Even at that time the productivity of agriculture and industrywas growing more rapidly than population."[viii] Analysts have found thatMalthus's mathematics were suspect and that he began to fudge on hisfigures in later editions. Layton points out in an introduction to Malthus' An Essay onPopulation, Malthus developed his theory in response to the socialphilosophy expounded by Godwin, who proposed a society without privateproperty, without the restraints of marriage, and without the requirementthat parents must make provision for their own children. After World War II, the population explosion created a certainhysteria that in time became a warning for the future from a number oftheorists and writers. "'Economic Growth,' Population, and the Environment." Population and Environment (Winter 1989): 83-1 .DeGregori, Thomas R. The real problem appears tobe with underdeveloped economies that still place a high value on largenumbers of offspring, seen by many sociologists as a way of producing acheap labor force for rural economies. John L. We classify countries today according to their degree of developmentand the rate of economic growth they can attain. Daniel Patrick Moynihan and othersthat welfare and lust are to blame for poverty and that Social Security,like the minimum wage, trade unions, and the like are to blame for our lossof economic competitiveness in the world today.[i] As W.T. . On the other hand, most less-developed countries still exhibit rapid rates of population growth despite the expenditures of millions of dollars for family planning activities.[xv]John C. Percival agrees that Malthus was simply wrong in his theory. New York: Alfred A. He notesthat Ehrlich and others continue to propound these ideas in spite ofevidence to the contrary, notably the fact that there has been a fallingbirth rate globally and in fact had been a falling birth rate in the UnitedStates for 1 years before Ehrlich wrote his book on the subject and calledfor a lower birth rate to counter population growth: "The falling birthrate was part of the global demographic transition, a process in whichfirst the death rate and then the birth rate fell from a high to a lowlevel."[xiii] The United Nations has in fact accepted the idea that worldpopulation will stabilize at about 1 billion near the end of the 21st C.,and this will occur given only the behavior of the population and notexternal physical constraints: "But still the anti-baby crusade continueswith the same old refrain about geometric growth leading to disaster."[xiv] Many theorists see a clear connection between degree of developmentand population growth that does make it seem that technological advancementis a key to both economic growth and control of population. He sawpopulation as increasing geometrically and indefinitely.Malthus believed that nature provided certain checks on the population, andhe considered these checks to be positive because they prevented thepopulation from increasing to such a degree that it would exceed theability of the earth to feed it. Malthus's picture of man the parasite just does not fitthe facts; man produces more than he consumes."[ix] Yet Malthus cannot be dismissed that easily, and indeed the concernsover population growth expressed over the last two or three decades showthat fears of excessive population growth have not abated and that manyscientists do believe it is possible for us to outstrip our ability to feedourselves. Yet some see the conceptof economic growth as one that is damaging to policies on population andthe environment. He saysthat the implications of the theory are as follows: 1) the theoreticalmaximum growth rate of population is greater than the theoretical maximumgrowth rate of food production; 2) the long-term growth rate of food andpopulation must be equal. The gloomy fear thatthese projections are mistaken, while others see this as a probablescenario. In Malthus's formulation,there were two postulates. There are many factors which canchange the picture radically, such as major changes in climatic conditionswhich would reduce the food supply (and such changes also are the subjectof heated debate, including the long-term uncertainty as to whether theworld is warming, cooling, or remaining essentially the same). He also saw the positive value of whathe called preventive checks, noting that these could also reduce the sizeof the population by decreasing the birth rate. In a broad sense,Malthus was saying that the unfettered increase in population would destroythe living conditions and thus the environment in society as well as strainthe food-producing capability that is also an environmental issue.Malthusian ideas have influenced numerous efforts at controllingpopulation. "Malthus Then and Now." Nation, 18 April 1987, 496-5 .Levin, Samuel M. However, Culbertson seems insteadto see a need for social controls not unlike what Malthus proposed, atleast in terms of creating social and cultural restraints and evenconstraints: "When everyone behaves as he or she wishes, population doesnot automatically behave in a way that is consistent with a high quality oflife and a preserved environment."[xi] Connections between population and economic growth have particularrelevance for the issue of environmental quality. Hess makes the interesting observationthat certain attitudes we have in place today can be seen as being derivedfrom Malthus even though the creators of these attitudes and programs woulddeny it. Knopf, 1977), 4 6.Percival, 31.Ibid., 31.Leon F. Bouvier and Thomas J. From this came a number of mass movements,including Zero Population Growth, and new causes for older conservationistsocieties such as the Sierra Club: "In the conventional wisdom of the era,the conservation of green plants, wildlife, and virgin forests became asone with the crusade to lower birth rates: it was people, and notmachines, that polluted the environment."[xii] Percival cites the views ofneo-Malthusians like Paul Ehrlich to the effect that there are limits togrowth and that the control of the population is necessary to protect theenvironment because all ills can be traced to population growth. The second was that passion between the sexesis necessary and would remain so. He cites the ideas of Sen. Malthuspointed out the value of war in reducing population, but war also has arole in reducing the ability of a people to sustain themselves through foodproduction (witness the present dilemma in Bosnia as an example). We have indeed attempted to improve conditions in theworld and may believe we have done so. Such checks included famine, pestilence,infant mortality, war, and other evils that Malthus referred to as miseryand vice. The reaction to Malthus at the time varied widely andcontinues to do so to this day. . New York: Macmillan, 1969.-----------------------John L. DeGregori, A Theory of Technology (Ames, IA: IowaState University Press, 1985), xi.Ibid., 186.Samuel M. Hess, "Malthus Then and Now," Nation, 18 April 1987,496-5 .W.T. "Population, Economic Growth, and Energy Demand, 1985- 2 2 ." Population and Development Review (June 1988): 233-244.Hess, John L. These issues wereraised by Malthus in developing his conception of population growth andhave been extended by others into a variety of ancillary issues from energyuse and abuse to pollution questions. Today, it appears that industrialized, developed nations are infact showing a reduction in population growth. "The Stable Population Model, Migration, and Complementarity." Population Research and Policy Review (1989): 165-179.Caldwell, John C. New York: E.P. Many of the assumptions made by Malthus about the ability of apopulation to produce sufficient food to feed itself, however, have provenfalse or at least less potent than Malthus believed. Social scientists today continue tostudy the relationship between the economy and population, with the addeddimension of the environment, seen as greatly affected by the economies ofpopulation. Taking these postulates, Malthus assumesthat the power of population or the generation of new population was muchgreater than the capacity of the earth to produce enough food. He saw war as becoming lessfatal and destructive than in the past, which is quite different from thereality of a world with stockpiles of hydrogen and atomic weapons.[vii] Another observation is that Malthus based his argument on theostensibly scientific observation that population grows geometrically,while the food supply at best grows arithmetically. "The Gang of Rome." National Review, 18 August 1989, 34-38.Petersen, William. Many people might consider these things misery and vice, butMalthus also considered them necessities in order to reduce the populationand prevent a worldwide disaster. 2. Given his pessimismabout certain trends, it would appear that our ability to control diseasewould ultimately create a burden because people would live longer andrequire more food, not to mention that they probably reproduce more withoutthe threat of disease and the consequent reduction in the reproductivepopulation. Hess writes, "Malthus was notoriouslymistaken. Population studies have been related to the development and evolutionof economies by different theorists who show the inter-relationship betweenthe two dimensions, with each influencing the other. For thatmatter, the degree of demand also remains in dispute. However, according to Percival, "Since plantsand most animals have more numerous offspring and shorter gestationperiods, they are capable with man's help of multiplying at a higher ratethan mankind . To investigate the causes that have hitherto impeded the progress of mankind toward happiness. When he wrote, there was littleknowledge of chemistry and physiology and very little data on economics andsociology. He believed that society wouldalways consist of proprietors and laborers. Knopf, 1977.Culbertson, John M. Espenshade, "The Stable PopulationModel, Migration, and Complementarity," Population Research andPolicy Review (1989): 165.John C. Presumably, then, developing thoseeconomies to a higher degree would prove beneficial to the population intime. A Theory of Technology. Yet we seem also to have achieved technological advances sothat we have been able to match the increases in population with increasesin food. The concept of growth is applied to human societiesas if the resulting principles were manifestations of a universal principleof nature-ordained growth, with the betterment of people the built-ingoal.[x] Culbertson says that the idea of economic growth has been postulatedas an answer to the population problem. "The Failure of Theories of Social and Economic Change to Explain Demographic Change: Puzzles of Modernization or Westernization." Research in Population Economics (1982): 297-33 .Chase, Allen. Malthus, An Essay onPopulation: Volume One (New York: E.P. More and more, technology is being seen often as part of theproblem rather than as the solution. The first was that food is necessary to theexistence of human beings. Levin, Malthus and the Conduct of Life (New York:Astra Books, 1967), 15.Hess, 496.Ray Percival, "The Gang of Rome," National Review, 18 August1989, 3 -31.John M. Espenshade. In the modern age, these issues havebecome part of the debate over development and underdevelopment and havebeen applied particularly to explaining or correcting the ills of thedeveloped world while trying to guide the developing world into moreproductive and balanced patterns. Caldwell indicates one reason why this may be so: "I believe thatwe will be able to show that the fertility decline occurred becausechildren changed from being on the whole an economic advantage to being aneconomic disadvantage."[xvi] Economists know there is a link between population growth andenvironmentally influential factors such as the demand for energy, just asthere is a relationship between the degree of economic and technologicaldevelopment and demand for energy. New York: Astra Books, 1967.Malthus, T.R. and Thomas J. Development is another termmeaning the same thing. The theory of Thomas Robert Malthus made a major contribution to thestudy of population. Dutton, 1933), vii.Malthus, 5.William Petersen, Population (New York: Macmillan, 1969), 154.Thomas R. Many of the facts that Malthus had at hisdisposal have quite simply changed. Endnotes BibliographyBouvier, Leon F. Malthus and the Conduct of Life. 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